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Companion Probabilities

Is this really a ‘guide’, probably not. More of a tool for advance players (with some fun stuff mixed in) so it assumes you have 16+ companions. The comp # is where that companion appears in your line up (e.g. 4 is the 4th companion). Every column after it is the percent chance of that companion appearing in a battle during the period of time listed. The per battle to per month are the more useful ones, the other were just for fun. I put the ‘battles per day’ at ten as this is meant for more advance players (who tend to play alot). I will consider changing it if enough people want me to. (Notes on the math are below the chart.) Assumptions and Methods. To get the equation used I plugged the % values of companion 2 to 15 into excel and fit it with a exponential decay function (as that is the one that fits best and makes the most sense). I then used that formula to calculate the chance of other companions (#16+) appearing. Take the numbers with a grain of salt. It is the best I could do given only 14 rather imprecise (+/- 0.5%) data points so the error is rather large. Probability formula: y=(1-(1-x)^n) x=chance of appearing per battle, as a decimal from 0 to 1 n= number of battles over that period of time y= chance of appearing over the period of time, as a decimal from 0 to 1 x and y where translated into percentage after the calculations were...

Managing Madness

Managing Madness

Sep 2, 2012

When travelling the world with 20 of your closest friends (AKA random people that you JUST met who decide to tag along) , proper crew management can be the difference between success and failure.